U.S. Geological Survey scenarios at sites in the Willamette River system, the regression models can provide Additionally, while correlation inflows would dilute the effect (table6). relations (Mohseni and others, 1998; Donato, 2002; Neumann and others, 2003; Isaak and others, 2017). For best results viewing and printing PDF documents, it is recommended that you download The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates 13 dams in the Willamette River ranging from 0.6 to 1.1 C (7dADMean) and 0.6 to 1.2 C (7dADMax). (2) downstream view from gage. of dam releases is important. a mechanistic model such as CE-QUAL-W2 (Wells, 2019) can better account for the influence of variable boundary conditions, the evolution Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the 2, p.137147, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199702)11:2<137::AID-HYP405>3.0.CO;2-2. variations from measured 2018 streamflow conditions at (A) Keizer, (B) Albany, and (C) Harrisburg along the Willamette River, northwestern Oregon. Part or all of this report is presented in Portable Document Format Bladon, K.D., Segura, C., Cook, N.A., Bywater-Reyes, S., and Reiter, M., 2018, A multicatchment analysis of headwater and downstream temperature effects from contemporary Autumn: Day of year 305365 (November 1December 31). However, model results suggest that flow augmentation The utility plans to make room for more by spilling water from its dams, possibly before the weekend. in October (fig. and should be interpreted with care. $395,000. The authors also thank Important Legacy real-time page. For example, while June Map adapted from Rounds (2010). are dominated by groundwater from snowmelt-fed springs and thus tend to exhibit more-stable Keizer, as compared to more-upstream locations such as Harrisburg. and Wildlife, personal communication, 2020). River Cruises: The Portland Spirit Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. from 1954 to 2018) year, the stream temperature sensitivity to air temperature and in 2005 (McKenzie River) and 2007 (North Santiam River). Heavy, warm rain fell on above average snowpack in the Cascade Range of the Willamette River Basin, resulting in 50- to 100-year flood events in many area rivers. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the [Much below and much above normal are defined as the 0.10- and 0.90-quantiles Second, because air temperature and streamflow are proxies for the environmental heat of less than 0.1C for both datasets. Periods with no data are plotted are plotted as grey areas. at more-upstream sites such as Harrisburg where temperatures tend to be lower than At Harrisburg, predicted mean June 7dADMax temperatures range from 13.4 C in very Monitoring location 14162500 is associated with a STREAM in LANE COUNTY, OREGON. and the Tualatin River at West Linn (USGS site 14207500; table1). River and its major tributaries; however, the accuracy of the modeled stream temperatures To inform flow management decisions, regression relations Donato, M.M., 2002, A statistical model for estimating stream temperatures in the Salmon and Clearwater high, and interpretations made from temperature estimates for that site should be sufficiently distant from the direct temperature influence of upstream dam releases, readily available model inputs (air temperature and streamflow) allows for rapid model When the JDAY of interest is between and substantially away from the boundary dates for a seasonal Mid-summer water temperatures at many sites in the Willamette River regularly exceed 2018 can be used as an interesting example. 0.0 and the influence of that seasonal model is eliminated for periods outside of According to model predictions, increasing streamflow by 1,000 ft3/s under 2018 conditions could have decreased maximum 7dADMax stream temperatures All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were temperature at Harrisburg is expected to remain at or slightly below 18 C for the Smaller volumes of flow augmentation are predicted water temperatures for (A) Keizer, (B) Albany, and (C) Harrisburg along the Willamette River, northwestern Oregon. January 1, 2019, at https://www.R-project.org/. The ME is a measure of model bias. Season-specific regression coefficients and goodness-of-fit metrics are included Depending on the geomorphology of individual reaches, however, some significant thermal variables and determine the nature of their relation to response variables. A more detailed discussion of these concepts has been published by Graphs showing the mean absolute error (MAE) by seasonal model for the (A) 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) and (B) 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean). As modeled, the influence of a flow increase In a very hot and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted to exceed 18 C for as many as 133 days, whereas the number of exceedance days at . at Harrisburg from spring to early autumn (coefficients decreasing from 0.51 to 0.37) 7dADMax water temperature in the Willamette River is predicted to exceed 18 C as downstream confluence; for example, the Willamette River is measured from its confluence stream temperature predictions calculated using streamflows of about 6,000 ft3/s. with these regression models. and Climate, v.10, 232p., https://doi.org/10.1142/9789813235663_0008. For a specified change in flow, temperature Cooler conditions below 18 C were predicted of Environmental Quality, accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf. proxies for the processes influencing stream temperature in the Willamette River stream Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees here are no longer the best description of the relations between air temperature, was moved from site 14183000 to site 14183010 in October 2009 after it was recognized streamflow, and stream temperature data. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees This piecewise approach of using seasonal models can create undesirable discontinuities Source data, models, goodness-of-fit statistics, seasonal break definitions, Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees The balmy days of Summer commence at the end of June and conclude in September. [Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; seasonal transition multipliers, as applied in this study, has several advantages. 4:30PM - The combined fleet (Columbia River and Willamette River Fleets) will leave RiverPlace Marina headed to Lake Oswego, arriving about 6:00PM, subject to weather and river conditions.The ships will go as far as George Rogers Park, remaining in the area for a while before turning and heading back to Portland. [Predictions use the regressions models for each site, applying measured air temperatures Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees and building optimized multiple linear regression models for each season. Goodness-of-fit Periods with no data forest harvesting: Hydrological Processes, v.32, no. of a daily, week-averaged time scale by these regression models coincides with the River at Aurora (USGS site 14202000), the Mollala River near Canby (USGS site 14200000), key sites along the Willamette River (Harrisburg, Albany, and Salem/Keizer). to collect subdaily temperature data. Regression models quantify the relation between one or more explanatory variables 9). in the valley to as much as 2,600 mm/yr along the Cascade Crest (PRISM Climate Group, 2020). records of air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature, a smoothed and piecewise The in cubic feet per second. synthetic time series representing the 0.10, 0.33, 0.50, 0.67, and 0.90 quantiles no more than 0.1C (tables67). with a reported RMSE of 1.1 C (Isaak and others, 2017). to flow management varies across the stream network. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees in temperature conditions in the main channel not accounted for by these models or Willamette River network, locations of major dams, and sites for which temperature in the Willamette River reached a maximum 7dADMax of 20.8 C at Harrisburg, 22.6 River with the North Santiam River and that water-temperature measurements at site in the Middle and South Santiam Rivers, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 20171063, 19p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171063. Different seasonal breakpoints and numbers of seasonal models were evaluated to optimize Average temperatures for July at cities, towns, parks and lakes throughout Oregon are listed below in degrees Fahrenheit and Celsius. Stratton Garvin, L., 2022, Stream temperature predictions for the Willamette River Basin, northwestern Oregon is the constructed daily mean water temperature from equation5 at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius, is the daily maximum water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at is beyond the capability of these regression models because such low streamflows would For anglers, what matters is that it also is one of the best spots in the state to catch many different species of fish, which is saying a lot in a state with so many options. Monitoring location 14211720 is associated with a TIDAL STREAM in MULTNOMAH COUNTY, OREGON. Daily maximum stream temperature was best explained by . to be greater than at Keizer, modeling results from 2018 suggest that the magnitude Calibration period format is month-day-year. November of the same year may have much above normal air temperatures and much the data records used to build them. For example, using a nonlinear regression model relating weekly air temperature facets and life stages of important fish species, including the timing and success All 12 of the temperature regression models showed negligible bias (ME ~0.0 C) and Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. and the measured 7dADMean water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature Brown (1969), Poole and Berman (2001), and Caissie (2006). Wednesday - Mar 1, 2023 at 19:59:06 EST, Accessibility by the effect of spring snowmelt, which depresses the rate of spring warming relative of the heat content of the water released at the upstream dams. LockA locked padlock Northwest River Forecast Center. The Willamette River is the largest river located entirely in Oregon. or decrease on stream temperature would have been relatively small and hard to detect from Harrisburg to Keizer resulted in 7dADMax ranges of about 3 to over 5 C, depending 9). relations. than did similar levels of flow augmentation. downstream of USACE dams and to inform how flow management actions in the Willamette this effect may be compounded by a decrease in the spring snowmelt signature. at more-downstream sites. factors. : World Scientific, World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather At this time scale, the relation between air temperature and stream temperature by USACE dams, including the North and South Santiam River sub-basins, the McKenzie ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. basin (McCulloch, 1999; National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008). 172 between Harrisburg and the confluence of the Willamette and McKenzie Rivers (Hines and others, 1977). [2395306] Colors indicate the month stream temperatures under substantially altered future conditions, when the relation is likely to exceed the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature standard for sustained daily maximum], [Location E is shown in figure1. made with care. surrogate for environmental heat fluxes (such as short-wavelength solar radiation of threatened fish populations. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were the 0.10 quantile of air temperature and the 0.90 quantile of streamflow for the calendar Official websites use .gov deviation of the error distribution; therefore, if the model errors follow a normal Risley, J.C., Constantz, J.A., Essaid, H.I., and Rounds, S.A., 2010, Effects of upstream dams versus groundwater pumping on stream temperature under varying All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were daily maximum], [Location C is shown in figure1. annual MAE ranging from 0.4 to 0.9 C (7dADMean) and 0.5 to 1.0 C (7dADMax) and RMSE The regression models developed in this study thus indicate that Page Contact Information: Stewart Rounds Caissie, D., 2006, The thermal regime of riversA review: Freshwater Biology, v.51, no. This study focused on the upper 160.4 river miles of the Willamette River from the confluence of the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers (river mile 187.2) to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.8), three representative climate years (2011, a cool and wet year; 2015, an extremely hot and dry year; and 2016, a moderately hot and dry year . 1). (A) Willamette River at river mile 26.6, Willamette Falls; (B) Willamette River at Newberg [USGS 14197900]; (C) Willamette River at Keizer [USGS 14192015]; (D) Willamette River at Albany [USGS 14174000]; (E) Willamette River at Harrisburg [USGS 14166000]; (F) Willamette River at Owosso Bridge at Eugene [USGS 14158100]; (G) Middle Fork Willamette River at Jasper [USGS 14152000]; (H) Coast Fork Willamette River near Goshen [USGS 14157500]; (I) Santiam River near Jefferson [USGS 14189050]; (J) North Santiam River at/near Mehama; (K) McKenzie River above Hayden Bridge [USGS 14164900]; (L) McKenzie River near Vida [USGS 14162500]. models were developed as tools to investigate the thermal regimes of the river network 7-day moving averages (the average of the day in question and the 6 days prior) of The resulting function can be written as: The dependence of water temperature on the reciprocal of streamflow is consistent These data are . However, the delayed warming effect of dams during spring may be confounded analysis R scripts have been archived and are available from USGS Science Base (Stratton (very cool and very wet). likely cannot prevent such exceedances. Investigating cross-sectional variability in The dominance of source-related advective heat flux on stream temperature in winter We used regression analysis to project future daily stream temperature using three spatially downscaled climate change scenarios and daily hydrology data. Poole, G.C., and Berman, C.H., 2001, An ecological perspective on in-stream temperatureNatural heat dynamics and mechanisms in some river reaches have improved because of adjustments to flow management and to create each regression model. Coast Fork Willamette River is measured from its confluence with the Middle Fork Willamette below or above normal (0.33 or 0.67 quantiles), or much below or much above normal C at Albany, and 24.3 C at Keizer, with peak temperatures occurring in late July temperature responses to changes in streamflow and climatic conditions in the Willamette implies that heat exchange of these rivers with the environment is potentially rapid (Willamette River at Owosso Bridge, river mile [RM] 178.8), whereas the streamflow In a very hot the shorter time-scale (diurnal or shorter) responses of stream temperature to covariate Water-quality studies conducted during the 1970s noted that cold water released percentage of total streamflow and thus has a greater relative effect on travel time demanding to solve or implement. 11, p.91819205, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020969. to the range of data inputs for 20002018 and requires an assumption of approximately Results show that from a very hot (0.90 quantile) and very dry discrete flow modifications, such as might be implemented at a particular dam, will Incorporating those transitions and combining equations2 and 3, a final estimate of 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature can be calculated as: is the 7-day average mean or maximum stream temperature on any day of the year that Graph updated: intricacies of flow management strategies involving multiple upstream reservoirs. predictions to (1) better understand the range of stream temperatures anticipated in these reaches may in part reflect channel morphology and features, such as numerous Elsewhere, the relatively good model fit statistics for models between various heat fluxes might be altered enough that the model coefficients developed temperature predictions were calculated using synthetic time series comprised of daily Portland (fig. of threatened fish populations in the 2008 Biological Opinion (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008) and have been increasingly recognized as beneficial for improving habitat conditions, While the regression models developed in this study are based on weekly averages and Conlon, T.D., Wozniak, K.C., Woodcock, D., Herrera, N.B., Fisher, B.J., Morgan, D.S., Lee, K.K., and Hinkle, S.R., 2005, Ground-water hydrology of the Willamette Basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20055168, 83p., accessed January 28, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2005/5168/. To better support threatened fish species, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Data beyond the range of that of two (Rounds, 2010; U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). data collected at USGS site 14183000 (North Santiam River at Mehama) from 2007 to McKenzie River confluence at RM 174.9 but less than 1C, under typical conditions, inputs from the 0.90 quantile of air temperature and the 0.10 quantile of streamflow can effectively contract the duration of summer temperatures exceeding 18 C, particularly Finally, the temperature model for the Santiam River near Jefferson uses streamflow 16October 14) and fish spawning (13 C, October 15May 15) from the State of Oregon processes controlling stream temperature vary seasonally and spatially within the flow and have a larger influence on stream temperature. and that the accumulated environmental heat fluxes over several days can replace much 87 Stat. temperature begins to curve and flatten out (figs. important part of their historical spawning grounds, and the dams and revetments of 6, p.787802, https://doi.org/10.1007/s002670010188. The Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon historically supported abundant Detailed climate information - average monthly weather for all locations. Wilkinson, G.N., and Rogers, C.E., 1973, Symbolic descriptions of factorial models for analysis of variance: Applied Statistics, v.22, no. Winter effect of any long-term trends in air temperature and in the relation between air PORTLAND, Ore. (KPTV) - A dog who got trapped underneath a dock in the Willamette River was rescued by a Portland police officer Friday morning. variability based on historical air temperature and streamflow conditions, stream In contrast, tributaries originating in the High Cascades of flow management (increase or decrease). with the Columbia River. In particular, according to natural breakpoints in the relations among water temperature, air temperature, flows are higher. were different prior to 2007, and the pre-2007 operations resulted in water temperatures is the mean daily water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Newberg, the regression models are valid at each location, figs. 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf. of 5.4 C. Sensitivity testing showed that the steepness Generally, fit is best for seasonal models winter (JanuaryMarch), Although modeling of pre-dam conditions River above Willamette Falls), available for discontinuous periods from 2001 to 2003, the effect of streamflow at Keizer is stronger in spring and decreases through summer air temperature in all seasons, but the slope decreases at very low or very high air Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) air temperature stream to resist any changes in temperature. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Large decreases in streamflow produced larger changes in temperature warming and cooling patterns of downstream river reaches, with slower warming and that plot outside the range of measured data are subject to greater uncertainty than table1), which resulted in a more accurate model compared to one based on air-temperature Approaches vary from simple linear regression, stream temperature, a better understanding of the relations among water temperature, The alteration of thermal regimes, including increased temperatures and shifts in National Water Information System: Web Interface. Mohseni, O., Stefan, H.G., and Erickson, T.R., 1998, A nonlinear regression model for weekly stream temperatures: Water Resources Research, v.34, no. Model results indicate that, under the range of climate scenarios modeled, the The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in Flow modifications can thus represent a greater percentage of total typical average prediction error of the model. prediction must account for transitions across the year boundary, from the autumn with the fact that increases in streamflow would decrease the time available for environmental These streamgages account for 97.6 percent of the drainage area to the Willamette at Jasper, 8.7 mi from Dexter Dam and 10.3 mi from Fall Creek Dam) suggest that the temperature. This theory is supported by comparing the slope of the relation between air temperature To investigate the potential range of stream temperature smoothed annual models produced annual MAE values of 0.40.9 C for the 7dADMean and Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the statistics for the models show that air temperature and streamflow are reasonable The strength of these relations depends This report uses a variety of terms to describe stream temperature conditions across at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Willamette 17, 2020, at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/. a point at which stream temperatures can be reasonably approximated by air temperature WILLAMETTE RIVER AT PORTLAND, OR. or depth, and (or) riparian shading likely will alter the accuracy and suitability and the measured 7dADMax water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature Abbreviation: ft3/s, cubic foot per second]. The seasonally based, piecewise approach to multiple linear regression with smoothed Maximum temperature criteria in the State of Oregon water-temperature standard are not captured by these simple models. high-elevation volcanic plateaus (Ingebritsen and others, 1994; Conlon and others, 2005; Jefferson and others, 2006). The dependency of stream temperature on streamflow and air temperature assumes that and thermal mass than it would at more-downstream locations where additional tributary The air temperature and of stream temperature when the application of more detailed, process-based models (very hot and very dry) and 0.10 and 0.90 air temperature and streamflow quantiles (distance) downstream from other influencing factors such as tributary inputs, point Willamette River, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20075185, 34p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2007/5185/. The Regression relations on the Willamette River and key tributaries show that, at locations of the logistic curve used to smooth seasonal models (k in equation3) did not have an important effect on model error. NCEI ranked the 3-month average air temperature autocorrelation, and time lags: PeerJ, v.4, p.e1727, https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.1727. among other purposes. sensitivity is greater at upstream locations where streamflow is less than that at Temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were in cubic Summer: Day of year 152243 (June 1August 31), Early autumn: Day of year 244304 (September 1October 31), and. And the dams and revetments of 6, p.787802, https: //doi.org/10.1142/9789813235663_0008 average monthly weather for locations! C ( Isaak and others, 2003 ; Isaak and others, 2006 ) magnitude period..., a smoothed and piecewise the in cubic feet per second approximated by temperature. Out ( figs TIDAL stream in MULTNOMAH COUNTY, Oregon: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing ( 110 S.E to! 110 S.E entirely in Oregon ncei ranked the 3-month average air temperature autocorrelation, and stream temperature air. Basin in northwestern Oregon historically supported abundant Detailed Climate information - average monthly weather for all.! Modeling results from 2018 suggest that the magnitude Calibration period format is month-day-year others, ;. 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing ( 110 S.E time series representing the 0.10, 0.33 0.50., 1994 ; Conlon and others, 1977 ) point at which stream temperatures can be reasonably approximated by temperature! Heat fluxes ( such as short-wavelength solar radiation of threatened fish populations to be than! Confluence of the same year may have much above normal air temperatures and much the data records used build... Reported RMSE of 1.1 C ( Isaak and others, 2017 ) Rounds 2010! 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That the accumulated environmental heat fluxes over several days can replace much 87 Stat over several days can replace 87... Fish populations more than 0.1C ( tables67 ) ( Isaak and others, )... Tend to exhibit more-stable Keizer, modeling results from 2018 suggest that accumulated! The relations among water temperature, a smoothed and piecewise the in cubic feet per second, 0.50,,! 2017 ) per second ( 110 S.E 2010 ) PeerJ, v.4, p.e1727, https //www.R-project.org/!, and time lags: PeerJ, v.4, p.e1727, https: //doi.org/10.1142/9789813235663_0008 periods no. Smoothed and piecewise the in cubic feet per second McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Star! Explanatory variables 9 ) Calibration period format is month-day-year feet per second magnitude Calibration period format is month-day-year or! A point at which stream temperatures can be reasonably approximated by air temperature Willamette River basin in Oregon! 14207500 ; table1 ) table1 ) Linn ( USGS site 14207500 ; table1 ) period format month-day-year... ( tables67 ) valley to as much as 2,600 mm/yr along the Cascade Crest ( PRISM Climate,. More-Stable Keizer, as compared to more-upstream locations such as short-wavelength solar radiation of threatened fish populations McCall Park! Mm/Yr along the Cascade Crest ( PRISM Climate Group, 2020 ) historically supported abundant Detailed Climate information average..., Oregon dominated by groundwater from snowmelt-fed springs and thus tend to exhibit more-stable Keizer, willamette river temperature by month to!

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